CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2019-03-08T04:17ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14544/-1
CME Note: Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-12T02:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-13T04:00Z (-15.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: DBM(DBEM) Prediction Method Note: Drag-based model in ensemble mode v2 (DBEMv2-ESA/SSA application) http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather Model & CME input parameters: start time: 2019-03-08 15:00 (+/-30 min) start distance: 20 Rsun initial speed: 350 km/s (+/-100) halfwidth: 30 deg (+/-10) cmd: 6 deg (+/-10) solar wind speed: 322 km/s (+/-50) gamma: 0.1 (+/-0.05) ------ probability of arrival: 100% CME arrival date & time: 2019-03-08 04:00 (+12h, -15h) CME arrival speed: 340 km/s (+/- 50 km/s) ------Lead Time: 63.83 hour(s)
Difference: -26.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2019-03-09T10:10Z
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